System Engineering and Productivity

System Engineering and Productivity

Identifying and Ranking of Risk Types in Underground Projects using the AHP Method (Applied Example: Tehran Metro Line 7)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Masoud Ahmadvand 1
Hossein Eghbali 2
1 Lecturer, Faculty of Civil and Architectural Engineering, University of Eyvanekey, Eyvanekey, Iran
2 Corresponding author: Assistant Professor, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, University of Eyvanekey, Eyvanekey, Iran
10.22034/sep.2022.243365
Abstract
Tunneling projects are always associated with a high percentage of risk. Therefore, considering the delay caused by various risks in the implementation of these projects, their evaluation is of great importance. The issue at hand is the classification and severity of their impact on these projects, which must be seriously considered. Ranking risks or delay factors can play a significant role in managers' decision-making. Our goal in this article is to identify and rank different types of risks in underground construction projects. Various multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques are important ranking and evaluation tools. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is one of the most powerful of these techniques. In this study, 24 risks related to the case study (Tehran Metro Line 7) were evaluated from the perspective of twelve people, according to four indicators of inadequate management control, economic weakness, unfavorable HSE conditions, and ignorance of individual factors. In the end, the risks of: 1) failure to match the physical conditions at the project site with the implementation equipment; 2) failure to provide original spare parts and worn-out machinery; 3) equipment and non-compliance with current international standards were ranked first to third, respectively.
Keywords
Ranking
Risk
Construction projects
AHP

Copyright ©, Masoud Ahmadvand, Hossein Eghbali

 

License

This article is released under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone is free to copy, share, translate, and adapt this article for any purpose, whether commercial or non-commercial, as long as proper citation is given to the authors and original publication.

A.Osuli, E.Negabat, A.Bayani, A.Naseri, H.Afkhami, Project Management Body of Knowledge, Printing, Tehran, National Petrochemical Company, 1384. (in Persian )
Al salman, A.A, Assessment of risk management perceptions and practices of construction contractors, Saudi Arabia, MSc. Thesis of Construction Engineering and Management, Department of Civil Engineering, King Fahd University of Petroleum & minerals, 2004.
Arikan, A.E, Development of a risk management decision support system for international construction projects, MSc. Thesis of civil engineering, Department of civil engineering, Middle East technical university, 2005.
Baccarini D, Archer R, The risk ranking of projects: a methodology, International Journal of Project Management, vol.19, 139-145,2010.
Cooper, D.I, and Chapman, C. B, Risk Analysis for large projects, Wiley, Chichester,1987.
Covello V.T, Mumpower. J, Risk analysis and Risk Managemen, An historical perspective. Risk analysis, 1985.
Dias Jr, A., and P. G Ioannou, A desirability model for the development of privately-promoted, Infrastructure. UMCEE Rep, 1995.
E. Rafizadeh, Review and risk assessment projects with a fuzzy, approach MS Thesis, Department of Civil Engineering and the environment, Amirkabir University of Technology,1388.
(in Persian ). H.Ghodsipoor, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Publication Center Amir Kabir University (Tehran Polytechnic), 1379.
Isaksson T, Stille H, Model for estimation of time and cost for tunnel projects based on risk evaluation, Rock mechanic, Rock engineering, Vol. 38 NO .5, 373-398,2005.
ITA/AITES, Guidelines for tunneling risk management: International Tunneling Association,Working Group No. 2. Tunneling and underground space technology, Vol.19. 217-237,2004.
Klein J. H, Cork R. B, An approach to technical risk assessment, International Journal of Project Management, 16(6), 345-351,1998.
M. Emad, A Talebnejad, M. Gharabaghani, Geotechnical risk assessment of all sections of drilling machines (TBM) subway tunnel. Case Study: Tehran metro line project seven), 1389.
M. Momeni, A. Sharifi Salim, Multiple Attribute Decision Making model and software,1390. M.H. Gholami, J. Ariani, Prioritize strategies HSE management to help increase productivity in hierarchical analysis, The third Conference HSE, 1389.
(in Persian ).
McDermott R. E, Mikulak R. J, Beauregard M. R, The basics of FMEA, New York, Quality Resources, 1996.
Pertmaster Software, Pertmaster Project Risk V7.5: Tutorial, manual and help, Available on: http://www.pertmaster.com/,2002.
Project Management Institute, A guide to Project Risk management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), 2008.
Schultz, RL, D .P Slevin, and J. K pinto, Strategy and tactics in process model of project implementation, Interface:34-36, 1987.
Wirba E.N, Tah J.H.M. and Howes, R, Risk interdependencies and natural language computation, Journal of Engineering Construction and Architectural Management,3(4):251-269,1996. Xu L, Liu G, The study of a method of regional environmental risk assessment, Journal of environmental assessment, 90(11). 3290- 3296,2009.
System Engineering and Productivity
Volume 1, Issue 1 - Serial Number 1
Serial No. 1, Winter Quarterly
Winter 2022
Pages 7-29