System Engineering and Productivity

System Engineering and Productivity

Presenting a Conceptual Framework for Predicting Emerging Technologies in the Iranian Banking Industry with a Mixed Approach: Content Analysis and Fuzzy Delphi Technique

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Amir Bahador Morovat 1
Farhad Nazarizadeh 2
Qasem Fouladi 3
1 Corresponding author: Ph.D. Student, Faculty of Humanities, University of Eyvanekey, Eyvanekey, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Technology and Strategy, Faculty of Management and Industrial Engineering, Malek-e-Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Humanities, University of Eyvanekey, Eyvanekey, Iran
10.22034/sep.2025.2065378.1346
Abstract
In recent decades, technological advancements have presented both opportunities and challenges for the banking sector. Among these, forecasting emerging technologies has become a strategic capability for guiding technology-related decision-making. However, many Iranian banks lack structured systems for monitoring and analyzing future technological developments. This study aims to develop a conceptual framework for forecasting emerging technologies in Iran’s banking industry using a mixed-methods approach. In the qualitative phase, thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews with 10 banking experts led to the identification of four main categories of influencing factors: organizational, technological, environmental, and cultural. In the quantitative phase, the Fuzzy Delphi Technique and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) were employed to determine the relative weight of each factor and its sub-indicators. The results indicate that organizational and technological factors are the most critical for successful technology forecasting. The final outcome is a four-layered model that can be used to design a structured forecasting system within Iranian banks. This model serves as a practical tool for banking managers and policymakers to prioritize digital transformation initiatives, develop technology roadmaps, and enhance foresight capabilities. Additionally, by integrating thematic analysis and FAHP, this research contributes to the theoretical development of localized foresight models in the financial services industry, offering a robust framework for strategic planning in technology-driven environments.

Highlights

  • A localized four-layer framework for forecasting emerging technologies in Iran’s banking sector
  • Identification of organizational and technological factors as the most critical components for successful forecasting
  • A practical model for designing institutional foresight systems in Iranian banks and financial regulators

Keywords
Future study
Foresight
Digital Banking
Emerging Technologies
Banking industry
Subjects

Copyright © Amir Bahador Morovat, Farhad Nazarizadeh, Qasem Fooladi

 

License

This article is released under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone is free to copy, share, translate, and adapt this article for any purpose, whether commercial or non-commercial, as long as proper citation is given to the authors and original publication.

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System Engineering and Productivity
Volume 5, Issue 4 - Serial Number 17
Serial No. 17, Winter Quarterly
Winter 2026
Pages 169-189

  • Receive Date 09 July 2025
  • Revise Date 06 August 2025
  • Accept Date 17 August 2025
  • First Publish Date 17 August 2025
  • Publish Date 22 December 2025