System Engineering and Productivity

System Engineering and Productivity

Analyzing Delay Factors in Deylam Transmission Line Project: A Conflict-Oriented Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping Approach

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Niloofar Hedayatifard 1
Hamed Salmanzadeh 2
1 Ph.D. Student, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
2 Corresponding author: Assistant Professor, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/sep.2025.2064873.1341
Abstract
In infrastructure projects, delay factors are often interlinked through complex causal relationships, making the accurate identification of the most critical causes dependent on comprehensive analytical methods. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) are widely regarded as effective tools for modeling such complexities. However, most existing studies rely on simple or weighted averaging to aggregate expert opinions, often neglecting the cognitive and relational dynamics between experts. This oversight can undermine the validity of results and ignore minority perspectives. This study proposes a novel approach that simultaneously incorporates both task conflict (differences in expert assessments) and relational conflict (variations in mutual trust) into the aggregation process. The method was applied to evaluate delay factors in a 230 kV transmission line project located in the Deylam Special Economic Zone. The findings revealed that using simple averaging resulted in final node values falling within a narrow range (0.77–0.82), offering limited differentiation in factor prioritization. In contrast, the conflict-resolution-based approach significantly expanded this range (0.64–0.95) and altered the distribution of factor importance. For instance, the weight of “lack of coordination among local entities” increased from 0.77 to 0.95, while the influence of “sudden increase in metal prices” dropped from 0.82 to 0.64. These results underscore the value of explicitly addressing conflicts during expert aggregation, demonstrating how such structured consideration can improve the validity and explanatory power of FCM outcomes—ultimately providing a more robust tool for decision-making in complex project environments.

Highlights

  • Introducing a novel method for simultaneous integration of task and relational conflicts in expert opinion aggregation within fuzzy cognitive maps.
  • Improving accuracy and differentiation of final node values in causal analysis of delay factors via structured conflict resolution.
  • Identifying shifts in key delay factor priorities, highlighting organizational significance and adjusting economic factor roles.

Keywords
Delay factors
Power transmission projects
Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM)
Task and relational conflicts
Expert opinion aggregation
Subjects

Copyright © Niloofar Hedayatifard, Hamed Salmanzadeh

 

License

This article is released under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone is free to copy, share, translate, and adapt this article for any purpose, whether commercial or non-commercial, as long as proper citation is given to the authors and original publication.

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System Engineering and Productivity

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 17 September 2025

  • Receive Date 05 July 2025
  • Revise Date 27 August 2025
  • Accept Date 17 September 2025
  • First Publish Date 17 September 2025
  • Publish Date 17 September 2025