System Engineering and Productivity

System Engineering and Productivity

An Integrated Approach of FMEA, BWM-CoCoSo, and K-means for Risk Management of EPC Projects in the Petrochemical Industry

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Esmaeil Alinezhad 1
Hassan Ramezani 2
Javad Zarei 3
1 Corresponding author: Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Shiraz University of Technology, Shiraz, Iran
2 M.Sc. Student, Department of Industrial Engineering, Shiraz University of Technology, Shiraz, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Shiraz University of Technology, Shiraz, Iran
10.22034/sep.2026.2081153.1449
Abstract
Effective risk management is critically important for Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) projects in the petrochemical industry, given their complex, capital-intensive, and high-risk nature. Traditional methods like Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), despite their widespread use, suffer from limitations such as equal weighting of criteria and an inability to handle large volumes of risks efficiently. To bridge this gap, this study proposes a novel hybrid framework for the systematic identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks. The proposed model integrates the core FMEA approach with the Best-Worst Method (BWM) for determining optimal weights of Severity, Occurrence, and Detection criteria, and the Combined Compromise Solution (CoCoSo) method for precise risk ranking. A key innovation is the incorporation of the K-means clustering algorithm, which uncovers hidden patterns and groups risks with similar profiles, providing managers with a holistic view for developing integrated mitigation strategies. The framework is applied to a real-world case study in Iran's petrochemical industry involving 123 identified risks across eight dimensions. Clustering results reveal five distinct risk clusters, facilitating focused attention on critical areas. Furthermore, the final CoCoSo ranking identifies the most significant risks in domains such as knowledge management from past projects, price volatility of equipment, and integrated information management. This integrated framework serves as a strategic tool, enhancing the capability of EPC project managers in optimal resource allocation and effective response planning for complex project risks.

Highlights

  • A novel hybrid FMEA, BWM, CoCoSo & K-means framework for EPC risk management
  • BWM-CoCoSo determines optimal features’ weights and ranking of identified risks.
  • K-means reveals hidden patterns of risks for integrated mitigation strategies.
  • Validated with 123 real risks from a petrochemical industry case study

Keywords
Risk management
EPC projects
FMEA
Data mining
MCDM
Subjects

Copyright © Esmaeil Alinezhad, Hassan Ramezani, Javad Zarei

 

License

This article is released under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone is free to copy, share, translate, and adapt this article for any purpose, whether commercial or non-commercial, as long as proper citation is given to the authors and original publication.

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System Engineering and Productivity

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 30 January 2026

  • Receive Date 17 December 2025
  • Revise Date 06 January 2026
  • Accept Date 30 January 2026
  • First Publish Date 30 January 2026
  • Publish Date 30 January 2026