مهندسی سیستم و بهره‌وری

مهندسی سیستم و بهره‌وری

بررسی و تدوین تهدیدات انسان‌ساز در پروژه‌های پالایشگاهی با تلفیقی از روش AHP-TOPSIS: مطالعه موردی پالایشگاه نفت تهران

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایوان‌کی، ایوان‌کی، ایران
2 استادیار، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه امام حسین (ع)، تهران، ایران
چکیده
پروژه‌های پالایشگاهی به دلیل فعالیت‌های زیاد خود همواره با درصد بالایی از تهدیدات و ریسک‌ها همراه هستند؛ بنابراین با توجه به تا خیراتی که براثر انواع تهدیدات و ریسک‌ها در اجرای پروژه‌ها به وجود می‌آید، ارزیابی آن‌ها از اهمیت بسزایی برخوردار است. مسئله‌ای که مطرح است دسته‌بندی و شدت اثر این تهدیدات و ریسک‌ها بر این قبیل از پروژه‌هاست که باید به‌طورجدی موردتوجه قرار گیرد. شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی ریسک‌ها می‌تواند نقش بسزایی در این پروژه‌ها داشته باشد. هدف در این پژوهش شناسایی و ارزیابی ریسک‌ها و تهدیداتی است که بر روی پروژه تأثیر زیادی می‌گذارد و باعث افزایش زمان و هزینه می‌شود. دراین‌بین نیز ابتدا بامطالعه کتابخانه‌ای و بررسی اسناد و مدارک مرتبط با موضوع به جمع‌آوری اطلاعات پرداخته سپس تهدیدات را با استفاده از تلفیق روش‌هایی از قبیل روش توسعه‌ای که جزئی از روش سلسله مراتبی (AHP) و روش TOPSIS فازی که یک تئوری قوی برای اولویت‌بندی تهدیدات و ریسک‌ها می‌باشد مورد ارزیابی قرار داده‌ایم. در این مطالعه نزدیک به 100 ریسک و تهدیداتی که بر پروژه‌های پالایشگاهی تأثیر می‌گذارند شناسایی‌شده که مربوط به نمونه موردمطالعه یعنی پالایشگاه نفت تهران است که با توجه به عواملی مانند تأثیر ریسک بر زمان، هزینه و کیفیت و احتمال وقوع ریسک، قابلیت کشف ریسک و قابلیت مدیریت ریسک، شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی شده‌اند. نتایج بیانگر آن است که با اجرای روش پیشنهادی انتظار می‌رود تهدیدات کل به‌اندازه 42/6% و اثرات مطلوب مورد انتظار بر ریسک پالایشگاه با اندازه 39/3% کاهش یابد. علاوه بر این، اثرات نامطلوب مورد انتظار در پالایشگاه به‌اندازه 41/3% و اثرات نامطلوب بر نگهداری، امنیت و حفظ پالایشگاه به‌اندازه 47/6% کاهش می‌یابد. در پایان نیز راه‌کارهایی جهت کاهش این‌گونه ریسک‌ها ارائه‌شده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Investigating and Formulating Anthropogenic Threats in Refinery Projects with a Combination of AHP-TOPSIS Method: A Case Study of Tehran Oil Refinery

نویسندگان English

Ali Yazdani Hoshyar 1
Abdolrahman Keshvari 2
1 M.Sc., Department of Management, Faculty of Humanities, University of Eyvanekey, Eyvanekey, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Humanities, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Refinery projects are always associated with a high percentage of threats and risks due to their many activities; therefore, considering the difficulties that arise due to various threats and risks in the implementation of projects, their evaluation is of great importance. The issue at hand is the classification and severity of the impact of these threats and risks on such projects, which must be seriously considered. Identifying and prioritizing risks can play a significant role in these projects. The aim of this research is to identify and evaluate risks and threats that have a great impact on the project and increase time and cost. In the meantime, we first collected information by studying the library and reviewing documents related to the subject, and then we evaluated the threats using a combination of methods such as the development method, which is part of the hierarchical approach (AHP) and the fuzzy TOPSIS method, which is a strong theory for prioritizing threats and risks. In this study, nearly 100 risks and threats affecting refinery projects have been identified, which are related to the study sample, Tehran Oil Refinery, and have been identified and prioritized according to factors such as the impact of risk on time, cost, and quality, and the probability of risk occurrence, risk detection capability, and risk management capability. The results indicate that by implementing the proposed method, the total threats are expected to be reduced by 42.6% and the expected favorable effects on refinery risk by 39.3%. In addition, the expected unfavorable effects on the refinery are reduced by 41.3% and the undesirable effects on maintenance, security, and preservation of the refinery are reduced by 47.6%. Finally, solutions are presented to reduce such risks.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Threats
Risk
Refinery Projects
Developmental Method
TOPSIS

Copyright ©, Ali Yazdani Hoshyar, Abdolrahman Keshvari

 

License

This article is released under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone is free to copy, share, translate, and adapt this article for any purpose, whether commercial or non-commercial, as long as proper citation is given to the authors and original publication.

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دوره 2، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 5
شماره پیاپی 5، فصلنامه زمستان
زمستان 1401
صفحه 94-119

  • تاریخ دریافت 24 مهر 1401
  • تاریخ بازنگری 25 دی 1401
  • تاریخ پذیرش 28 بهمن 1401
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار 01 اسفند 1401
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 اسفند 1401