نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
تازه های تحقیق
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
In infrastructure projects, delay factors are often interlinked through complex causal relationships, making the accurate identification of the most critical causes dependent on comprehensive analytical methods. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) are widely regarded as effective tools for modeling such complexities. However, most existing studies rely on simple or weighted averaging to aggregate expert opinions, often neglecting the cognitive and relational dynamics between experts. This oversight can undermine the validity of results and ignore minority perspectives. This study proposes a novel approach that simultaneously incorporates both task conflict (differences in expert assessments) and relational conflict (variations in mutual trust) into the aggregation process. The method was applied to evaluate delay factors in a 230 kV transmission line project located in the Deylam Special Economic Zone. The findings revealed that using simple averaging resulted in final node values falling within a narrow range (0.77–0.82), offering limited differentiation in factor prioritization. In contrast, the conflict-resolution-based approach significantly expanded this range (0.64–0.95) and altered the distribution of factor importance. For instance, the weight of “lack of coordination among local entities” increased from 0.77 to 0.95, while the influence of “sudden increase in metal prices” dropped from 0.82 to 0.64. These results underscore the value of explicitly addressing conflicts during expert aggregation, demonstrating how such structured consideration can improve the validity and explanatory power of FCM outcomes—ultimately providing a more robust tool for decision-making in complex project environments.
کلیدواژهها English
Copyright © Niloofar Hedayatifard, Hamed Salmanzadeh
License
This article is released under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone is free to copy, share, translate, and adapt this article for any purpose, whether commercial or non-commercial, as long as proper citation is given to the authors and original publication.
