مهندسی سیستم و بهره‌وری

مهندسی سیستم و بهره‌وری

طراحی چارچوب مدلی برای احداث نیروگاه خورشیدی با رویکرد تصمیم‌گیری چند معیاره و تحلیل پوششی داده‌ها

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی، تهران، ایران
2 نویسنده مسئول: استادیار، دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
ایران در سال‌های اخیر با چالش‌های فزاینده‌ای در تأمین نیازهای انرژی خود مواجه شده که این امر با قطعی‌های مکرر برق در بخش‌های خانگی و صنعتی مشهود است. این وضعیت ضرورت یافتن راه‌حل‌های پایدار و قابل‌اعتماد انرژی را برجسته می‌کند. این مطالعه چارچوبی ترکیبی برای تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره ارائه می‌دهد تا مناسب‌ترین مناطق برای توسعه نیروگاه‌های خورشیدی در سراسر کشور شناسایی و رتبه‌بندی شوند. این مطالعه از رویکرد مبتنی بر منطق فازی برای انتخاب ترکیبی از روش‌ها استفاده کرده، درحالی‌که عدم قطعیت ذاتی در داده‌ها و نظرات خبرگان را در نظر گرفته است. در مرحله اول، تحلیل پوششی داده‌ها (DEA) برای ارزیابی کارایی تمامی استان‌ها بر اساس شاخص‌های اقلیمی و جغرافیایی مانند تابش خورشیدی، ساعات آفتابی، بارندگی، میزان ابرناکی و ارتفاع، با استفاده از داده‌های سازمان کل هواشناسی کشور به کار گرفته شد. این فرایند به غربال‌گری و شناسایی استان‌های مناسب‌تر برای احداث نیروگاه‌های خورشیدی کمک کرد. سپس، معیارهای کلیدی و مؤثر برای انتخاب بهینه مکان با استفاده از فرایند تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی فازی (FAHP)، بر اساس قضاوت‌های خبرگان تعیین و وزن‌دهی شدند. در نهایت، با تلفیق نتایج مراحل قبلی، استان‌های منتخب با استفاده از تکنیک رتبه‌بندی بر اساس شباهت به راه‌حل ایده‌آل در محیط فازی (FTOPSIS) رتبه‌بندی شدند. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که استان‌های مرکزی، جنوبی و جنوب شرقی ایران بالاترین پتانسیل را برای توسعه انرژی خورشیدی دارند. یافته‌های  پژوهش می‌تواند به تصمیم‌گیران، برنامه‌ریزان و سرمایه‌گذاران در حوزه انرژی کمک کند تا گامی کلیدی در راستای حرکت ایران به‌سوی آینده‌ای پایدارتر و کاهش وابستگی به نفت و گاز باشد.

تازه های تحقیق

  • شناسایی مکان‌های بهینه برای احداث نیروگاه‌های خورشیدی با چارچوب تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره
  • کمک کردن تحلیل پوششی داده‌ها با تکیه بر شاخص‌های اقلیمی و جغرافیایی به غربالگری استان‌های مستعد
  • بهره‌گیری از منطق فازی و قضاوت‌های خبرگان برای وزن‌دهی معیارها بادقت بیشتر و مدیریت عدم قطعیت‌ها

کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Designing a Framework for Solar Power Plant Development Using a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach and Data Envelopment Analysis

نویسندگان English

Fatemeh Moslemi 1
Nasser Safaie 2
1 M.Sc., Faculty of Industrial Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
2 Corresponding author: Assistant Professor, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

In recent years, Iran has faced increasing challenges in meeting its energy demands, as evidenced by frequent power outages in both residential and industrial sectors. This situation underscores the urgent need for sustainable and reliable energy solutions. This study proposes a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making framework to identify and rank the most suitable regions for developing solar power plants across the country. The study employs a fuzzy logic-based approach to integrate multiple methods while accounting for the inherent uncertainty in data and expert opinions. In the first stage, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was utilized to evaluate the efficiency of all provinces based on climatic and geographical indicators, including solar radiation, sunshine hours, precipitation, cloud cover, and altitude, using data from the Iran Meteorological Organization. This process facilitated the screening and identification of provinces more suitable for establishing solar power plants. Subsequently, key and influential criteria for optimal site selection were determined and weighted using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) based on expert judgments. Finally, by integrating the results of the previous stages, the selected provinces were ranked using the Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS). The results indicate that the central, southern, and southeastern provinces of Iran possess the highest potential for solar energy development. The findings of this research can assist decision-makers, planners, and investors in the energy sector to take a significant step toward advancing Iran’s transition to a more sustainable future and reducing its dependency on oil and gas.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Renewable Energy
Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)
Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)
Geographical Prioritization

Copyright © Fatemeh Moslemi, Nasser Safaie

 

License

This article is released under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone is free to copy, share, translate, and adapt this article for any purpose, whether commercial or non-commercial, as long as proper citation is given to the authors and original publication.

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