مهندسی سیستم و بهره‌وری

مهندسی سیستم و بهره‌وری

توسعه مدلی داده‌محور برای پیش‌بینی ترک خدمت کارکنان و طراحی سیاست‌های شخصی‌سازی‌شده نگهداشت

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان
دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
ریزش داوطلبانه کارکنان از چالش‌های مهم مدیریت منابع انسانی است که می‌تواند به افزایش هزینه‌ها و کاهش بهره‌وری سازمان منجر شود. این پژوهش با هدف توسعه یک مدل داده‌محور برای پیش‌بینی ریزش کارکنان و ارائه راهکارهای نگهداشت انجام شد. مطالعه از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش‌شناسی ترکیبی بود. داده‌های ۸۳۱ نفر از کارکنان یک شرکت فنی و مهندسی در تهران گردآوری و پس از پاک‌سازی، پیش‌پردازش و متعادل‌سازی کلاس‌ها تحلیل شد. برای پیش‌بینی ریزش، هشت الگوریتم یادگیری ماشین اجرا و با معیارهای دقت، بازخوانی، دقت پیش‌بینی و امتیاز F1 ارزیابی شدند.

نتایج نشان داد جنگل تصادفی با دقت ۹۲ درصد، بازخوانی ۹۴ درصد و امتیاز F1 برابر ۹۲ درصد بهترین عملکرد را دارد. مهم‌ترین عوامل مؤثر بر ریزش شامل درآمد ماهانه، ساعات اضافه‌کاری، فاصله محل سکونت تا سازمان، سابقه کاری و واحد سازمانی بود. همچنین، خوشه‌بندی کارکنان به شناسایی گروه‌های متمایز و تدوین سیاست‌های نگهداشت متناسب با هر گروه منجر شد. این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد ترکیب پیش‌بینی ریزش با خوشه‌بندی می‌تواند مبنای تصمیم‌گیری دقیق‌تر و طراحی راهبردهای اثربخش‌تر در مدیریت منابع انسانی باشد.

تازه های تحقیق

  • مسئله اصلی: ریزش داوطلبانه کارکنان و پیامدهای آن برای سازمان
  • داده و جامعه: ۸۳۱ کارمند یک شرکت فنی و مهندسی در تهران
  • روش تحلیل: پیش‌پردازش داده، SMOTE، هشت الگوریتم یادگیری ماشین و K-Means
  • یافته کلیدی: جنگل تصادفی بهترین عملکرد را نشان داد و عوامل مهم شامل درآمد، اضافه‌کاری و فاصله مکانی بودند
  • خروجی مدیریتی: طراحی سیاست‌های نگهداشت شخصی‌سازی‌شده برای گروه‌های مختلف کارکنان

کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Developing a Data-Driven Model for Predicting Employee Attrition and Designing Personalized Retention Policies

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Abbassi
Alireza Koushkie Jahromi
Hossein Aslipour
Iman Raeesi Vanani
Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Voluntary employee attrition is a major challenge in human resource management, potentially leading to increased costs and reduced productivity. This study aimed to develop a data-driven model for predicting employee attrition and proposing retention strategies. The research was applied in purpose and employed a mixed-methods design. Data were collected from 831 employees of a technical and engineering company in Tehran. After data cleaning and preprocessing, class imbalance was addressed using the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE). Eight machine-learning algorithms were implemented to predict employee attrition and evaluated using accuracy, recall, precision, and F1-score metrics. The results indicated that the Random Forest algorithm achieved the best performance, with an accuracy of 92%, a recall of 94%, and an F1-score of 92%. The most influential factors affecting employee attrition included monthly income, overtime hours, commuting distance between employees’ residences and the organization, work experience, and organizational unit. Furthermore, employee clustering enabled the identification of distinct employee groups and the development of tailored retention policies for each group. The findings demonstrate that integrating attrition prediction with employee clustering can move beyond identifying employees at risk of leaving toward data-driven and personalized managerial interventions, providing a more actionable basis for human resource retention decisions.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Human Resource Retention
Employee Attrition Prediction
Machine Learning
K-Means Clustering
Random Forest

Copyright © Mohammad Abbassi, Alireza Koushkie Jahromi, Hossein Aslipour, Iman Raeesi Vanani

 

License

This article is released under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone is free to copy, share, translate, and adapt this article for any purpose, whether commercial or non-commercial, as long as proper citation is given to the authors and original publication.

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