مهندسی سیستم و بهره‌وری

مهندسی سیستم و بهره‌وری

ارائه چارچوب مفهومی پیش‌بینی فناوری‌های نوظهور در صنعت بانکداری ایران با رویکرد آمیخته: تحلیل مضمون و تکنیک دلفی فازی

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان
امیر بهادر مروت 1
فرهاد نظری زاده 2
قاسم فولادی 3
1 نویسنده مسئول: دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایوان‌کی، سمنان، ایران
2 استادیار، گروه فناوری و راهبرد، دانشکده مدیریت و مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، تهران، ایران
3 استادیار، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایوان‌کی، سمنان، ایران
10.22034/sep.2025.2065378.1346
چکیده
تحولات فناورانه در دهه‌های اخیر، بانک‌ها را با مجموعه‌ای از فرصت‌ها و تهدیدهای نوظهور مواجه ساخته است. در این میان، پیش‌بینی فناوری‌های نوظهور به‌عنوان یک قابلیت راهبردی، نقش کلیدی در تصمیم‌سازی‌های فناورانه ایفا می‌کند. بااین‌حال، بسیاری از بانک‌های ایرانی فاقد سازوکارهای ساختاریافته برای رصد و تحلیل آینده فناوری هستند. پژوهش حاضر با هدف طراحی چارچوبی مفهومی برای پیش‌بینی فناوری‌های نوظهور در صنعت بانکداری ایران، با بهره‌گیری از رویکرد آمیخته انجام‌شده است. در مرحله کیفی، از طریق تحلیل مضمون مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته با ۱۰ خبره بانکی، ۴ دسته عامل اصلی شامل عوامل سازمانی، فناورانه، محیطی و فرهنگی شناسایی شد. سپس در مرحله کمی، با بهره‌گیری از تکنیک دلفی فازی و فرایند تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی فازی (FAHP)، وزن نهایی هر یک از عوامل و شاخص‌های زیرمجموعه آن‌ها محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد که عوامل سازمانی و فناورانه بیشترین اهمیت را در پیش‌بینی موفق فناوری دارند. چارچوب نهایی پژوهش، مدلی چهارلایه است که قابلیت به‌کارگیری در طراحی نظام پیش‌بینی فناوری در بانک‌های کشور را دارد. این مدل می‌تواند به مدیران بانکی و سیاست‌گذاران در اولویت‌بندی پروژه‌های تحول دیجیتال، تدوین نقشه راه فناوری و توسعه ساختارهای آینده‌نگر کمک نماید. همچنین پژوهش با ارائه مدلی ترکیبی مبتنی بر تحلیل مضمون و FAHP، سهمی نظری در توسعه مدل‌های بومی آینده‌پژوهی فناورانه در صنایع خدمات مالی کشور ایفا می‌کند.

تازه های تحقیق

  • ارائه یک چارچوب چهارلایه بومی برای پیش‌بینی فناوری‌های نوظهور در صنعت بانکداری ایران
  • شناسایی عوامل سازمانی و فناورانه به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین مؤلفه‌های پیش‌بینی موفق فناوری
  • ارائه مدلی کاربردی برای طراحی نظام رسمی آینده‌پژوهی در بانک‌ها و نهادهای مالی کشور

کلیدواژه‌ها
آینده‌پژوهی
پیش‌بینی فناوری
بانکداری دیجیتال
فناوری‌های نوظهور
صنعت بانکداری
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Presenting a Conceptual Framework for Predicting Emerging Technologies in the Iranian Banking Industry with a Mixed Approach: Content Analysis and Fuzzy Delphi Technique

نویسندگان English

Amir Bahador Morovat 1
Farhad Nazarizadeh 2
Qasem Fouladi 3
1 Corresponding author: Ph.D. Student, Faculty of Humanities, University of Eyvanekey, Eyvanekey, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Technology and Strategy, Faculty of Management and Industrial Engineering, Malek-e-Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Humanities, University of Eyvanekey, Eyvanekey, Iran
چکیده English

In recent decades, technological advancements have presented both opportunities and challenges for the banking sector. Among these, forecasting emerging technologies has become a strategic capability for guiding technology-related decision-making. However, many Iranian banks lack structured systems for monitoring and analyzing future technological developments. This study aims to develop a conceptual framework for forecasting emerging technologies in Iran’s banking industry using a mixed-methods approach. In the qualitative phase, thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews with 10 banking experts led to the identification of four main categories of influencing factors: organizational, technological, environmental, and cultural. In the quantitative phase, the Fuzzy Delphi Technique and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) were employed to determine the relative weight of each factor and its sub-indicators. The results indicate that organizational and technological factors are the most critical for successful technology forecasting. The final outcome is a four-layered model that can be used to design a structured forecasting system within Iranian banks. This model serves as a practical tool for banking managers and policymakers to prioritize digital transformation initiatives, develop technology roadmaps, and enhance foresight capabilities. Additionally, by integrating thematic analysis and FAHP, this research contributes to the theoretical development of localized foresight models in the financial services industry, offering a robust framework for strategic planning in technology-driven environments.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Future study
Foresight
Digital Banking
Emerging Technologies
Banking industry

Copyright © Amir Bahador Morovat, Farhad Nazarizadeh, Qasem Fooladi

 

License

This article is released under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone is free to copy, share, translate, and adapt this article for any purpose, whether commercial or non-commercial, as long as proper citation is given to the authors and original publication.

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مهندسی سیستم و بهره‌وری
دوره 5، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 17
شماره پیاپی 17، فصلنامه زمستان
زمستان 1404
صفحه 169-189

  • تاریخ دریافت 18 تیر 1404
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