مهندسی سیستم و بهره‌وری

مهندسی سیستم و بهره‌وری

ارائه مدل سیگموید انطباقی پویا جهت اندازه‌گیری تاب‌آوری جامعه ایران در مقابل مؤلفه اقتصادی تهدید نرم

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه امام حسین (ع)، تهران، ایران
2 نویسنده مسئول: دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه امام حسین (ع)، تهران، ایران
چکیده
در جهان پیچیده امروز، تهدیدهای نرم به‌ویژه در عرصه اقتصادی به ابزاری راهبردی برای اعمال فشار و بی‌ثبات‌سازی کشورها تبدیل شده‌اند. در این میان، تاب‌آوری اقتصادی به‌عنوان توانایی سیستم‌های ملی در حفظ پایداری، سازگاری و بازگشت‌پذیری در برابر فشارها، تحریم‌ها و بحران‌ها، اهمیتی حیاتی یافته است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف طراحی و ارائه الگویی نوین برای سنجش تاب‌آوری اقتصادی ایران انجام شده است. ابتدا با مرور مبانی نظری و پیشینه پژوهش، ابعاد و شاخص‌های کلیدی تاب‌آوری اقتصادی شناسایی و دسته‌بندی گردید. سپس با استفاده از روش‌های استانداردسازی، هم‌جهت‌سازی و وزن‌دهی شاخص‌ها، امکان ترکیب آنها در قالب شاخصی جامع فراهم شد. در ادامه، مدل ابتکاری مبتنی بر تابع سیگموید انطباقی پویا به‌کار گرفته شد تا علاوه بر نمایش مرزهای حساسیت و آستانه‌های پویای اقتصاد، امکان تحلیل رفتار تطبیقی و سناریوهای مختلف نیز میسر گردد. یافته‌های تحقیق بیانگر آن است که الگوی پیشنهادی نسبت به روش‌های متداول همانند تجمیع وزنی انعطاف‌پذیری و دقت بالاتری در بازنمایی وضعیت واقعی اقتصاد ایران دارد. جواب روش ابتکاری این تحقیق به سیاست‌گذاران این امکان را می‌دهد که در مواجهه با تحریم‌ها و تهدیدهای نرم، تصمیم‌هایی دقیق‌تر، سریع‌تر و مبتنی بر شواهد اتخاذ کنند. نوآوری اصلی تحقیق، طراحی چارچوبی بومی و پویا برای سنجش تاب‌آوری اقتصادی ایران است که علاوه بر غنای ادبیات موضوع، قابلیت تعمیم به سایر کشورها را نیز دارا می‌باشد. نتایج این مطالعه می‌تواند به‌عنوان مبنای علمی برای مقاوم‌سازی ساختار اقتصادی کشور، ارتقای امنیت ملی و افزایش توان چانه‌زنی در عرصه بین‌الملل مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

تازه های تحقیق

  • عدم وجود روشی جامع و کامل جهت اندازه‌گیری تاب‌آوری اقتصادی
  • روش‌های موجود در ادبیات موضوع دقت کم و انعطاف پذیری کمی دارند
  • ماهیت تاب‌آوری اقتصادی غیرخطی بوده نه خطی

کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

A Dynamic Adaptive Sigmoid Model to Measure Iran’s Community Resilience Against Economic Soft Threats

نویسندگان English

Soheil Emamyian 1
Hossein Saberi Aliabad 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran
2 Corresponding author: Ph.D. Student, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

In today's complex world, soft threats, particularly in the economic sphere, have become strategic tools for exerting pressure and destabilizing nations. In this context, economic resilience, defined as the ability of national systems to maintain stability, adaptability, and recovery in the face of pressures, sanctions, and crises, has gained vital importance. This research aims to design and present a novel model for measuring Iran's economic resilience. Initially, by reviewing theoretical foundations and research background, the key dimensions and indicators of economic resilience were identified and categorized. Subsequently, using standardization, alignment, and weighting methods, these indicators were integrated into a comprehensive index. Furthermore, an innovative model based on a Dynamic Adaptive Sigmoid function was employed to represent sensitivity boundaries and dynamic economic thresholds, while enabling the analysis of adaptive behavior and various scenarios. The findings indicate that the proposed model offers higher flexibility and precision in representing the actual state of Iran's economy compared to conventional methods such as weighted aggregation. The results of this innovative approach enable policymakers to make more accurate, rapid, and evidence-based decisions when facing sanctions and soft threats. The primary innovation of this study is the design of a localized and dynamic framework for measuring Iran's economic resilience, which, in addition to enriching the existing literature, is generalizable to other countries. The results of this study can serve as a scientific basis for strengthening the country's economic structure, enhancing national security, and increasing bargaining power in the international arena.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Resilience
Soft Threat
Economic Resilience
Iranian Society
Dynamic Adaptive Sigmoid

Copyright © Soheil Emamyian, Hossein Saberi Aliabad

 

License

This article is released under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone is free to copy, share, translate, and adapt this article for any purpose, whether commercial or non-commercial, as long as proper citation is given to the authors and original publication.

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انتشار آنلاین از 09 خرداد 1405

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